What does "grit" mean in hockey?

Or... Don't trade for Chris Neil

Grit, moxie, truculence, character, "The Will of the Warrior", these are all words and terms that are thrown around at this time of year when the NHL trading deadline picks up steam. Otherwise unassuming players like David Clarkson, Marty Reasoner or, duh, Chris Neil get thrown around in potential trades on message boards, blog posts and radio stations.

Jacques Martin should be banned from hockey

The Montreal Canadiens saw another lead get erased Tuesday night, and it's become a recurrent theme in Montreal these past few weeks.

Tuesday vs. Buffalo - Up 1-0 in 1st period. Lose 2-1 in Overtime.
Monday vs. Calgary - Up 4-0 in 2nd period. Win 5-4 in Overtime.
Saturday vs. NY Rangers - Up 3-1 in 1st period. Hang on for 3-2 win.
January 12th vs. Pittsburgh - Up 2-1 in 2nd period. Lose 5-2.

The three games before that were comeback wins for the Canadiens, who may be, under Jacques Martin's system, a team that plays better in desperation when they're allowed to skate. Their goal differential by period throughout each of their games has been +8, +3 and -7, which means that something is happening throughout the game that causes this breakdown. Unfortunately, no website splits goaltending statistics by period, but with an overall .921 save percentage, I neglect to think that the problem for the breakdowns has been Carey Price.

Is Alex Edler the best defenseman in Canada?

What makes a good defenseman? Not allowing goals against? Ice-time? Plus/minus? I think it has a little more to do with how good shooters are when they're out against you.

I'm at my parents' place, so my copy of Moneyball isn't handy, but I recall baseball historian and statistician Bill James being quoted in it as saying that he didn't want statistics to manipulate his thought. James wanted to watch a game, compile data from the game and see what gave the winning team its success.

To determine the qualities that make a good goal scorer great, you have to take the reverse to determine what makes a defenseman good. The data that I've compiled based on 15 games isn't enough to draw up totally what makes a hockey team good, but I've noticed a couple of trends:

Special teams? Just how much do they matter?

I was reading Jonathan Willis' excellent piece on Steve Montador Monday night, and it got me thinking about why Buffalo was having such a bad season. They have a pretty progressive front office, and I fully expect the front office checked Behind The Net in scouting Steve Montador.

Maybe statistics don't matter as much as we thought? The success of Montador this season shows that, from player to player at even strength, player contribution can be predicted. Special teams, however, are hard to break down.

How much of a role do special teams play in a teams' success? I broke down the numbers based on stats before Monday night's games:

A brief look at Hockey Night in Canada

In a move up there with the Edmonton Oilers firing their training staff, the butthurt guys at the Ottawa Citizen suggested last week that the team ban Toronto Maple Leaf fans from Senators' home games.

Why is this relevant? Because the Leafs and Sens game is the early game on Hockey Night tonight; neither team is really good this year at a combined 18-26 and both team has found a way to manage a loss to the other!

My follow-up with Bill Daly on the Colin Campbell e-mails

Or, how to get involved in the 'access' debate

A lot has happened this week. Tyler Dellow kicked it off Sunday night with his post about the public Colin Campbell e-mails and connected the dots. There were three major points to take away from this:

A) Colin Campbell has a foul mouth.

B) Colin Campbell gets pissed off when calls go against his son.

C) Colin Campbell has harsh words for players who complain about calls.

Colin Campbell's time-bomb explodes

Here, friends, is the importance of the follow-up question.

When NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly came out today to talk about Tyler Dellow's now legendary take-down of NHL Director of Hockey Operations Colin Campbell, he said the following:

"Any suggestion that Colin Campbell performs his job with any less than 100% integrity at all times and in every decision he makes is way off base and just factually wrong. Because of the potential for a conflict of interest, or more importantly a perceived conflict of interest, the League has implemented various structural protections that prohibit Colie from having any oversight or disciplinary authority relating to any game in which his son, Gregory, plays. Its always fair to question and criticize League decisions as being wrong, but not on the basis that they aren't justly and fairly arrived at."

3 things we learned this weekend:

Courtesy of CFL digital media guru Jaime Stein comes this picture proving that the Riders didn't really learn anything this football season. After failing math one year ago, they look to fail at grammar, too.

Monday statgeek: In defense of Mikael Grabovski

Volatility measures the number of total goals per 60 minutes a player was on the ice for. The idea is that goals are more likely to occur when certain players are on the ice.

It took a couple of weeks, but it appears that Tom Renney has officially nixed the dreaded 10 - 14 - 6 - 77 penalty killing unit that was responsible for ten powerplay goals against. Last night against Chicago his top unit on the first powerplay of the game for the Hawks was Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner, Jim Vandermeer and Ryan Whitney. Shawn Horcoff saw just 25 shorthanded seconds and the defensively inept Tom Gilbert has been placed on a unit with Theo Peckham.

Leafs strategy: Send Orr after goalie

Canucks cash in on ridiculous 40th anniversary festivities

Ever wonder why nobody has written a book called 'The Senators before Daniel Alfredsson: A Retrospective' or commissioned a painting entitled 'Accomplishments of the post-expansion era Leafs' is because those are fucking stupid ideas that swell those teams' fanbases with disgust, scorn and regret.

So what's different between that and this drawn out 40th Anniversary celebration the Vancouver Canucks have pulled out this year?

Side note: Canucks ownership, to their credit, have milked the 'vintage' program that the National Hockey League rolled out a few years ago. The Canucks were able to sell a buttload of blue and green merchandise before emblazoning a differet logo on it a few years down the road and selling a buttload more.

Now, this 40th Anniversary Celebration has everything. A book commissioned by the Canucks celebrating their history. Jerseys without nameplates. Honouring former pluggers who scored 62 goals with the team and never having played a playoff game with them.

Sure, it may be fun to look at the past, but when three quarters of your all-time team are in the starting lineup in late October, you should probably lay off on the pomp and ceremony until you win something.

As a Canucks fan can best tell you, here is a brief history of the Vancouver Canucks, sans colourful pictures or waxing poetic about Jack McIlhargey:

1970: The Canucks enter the NHL as part of the Eastern Division and fail to take advantage of any 'Eastern Bias' and go 24-46-8.

1982: Roger Neilsen surrenders in a playoff game against Chicago. This somehow starts the third most popular playoff tradition in Vancouver: Waving white towels at home games. The other most popular playoff traditions are bitching about how we started the towel thing, and bitching about Roberto Luongo on sportstalk radio.

1985: The Canucks allow 401 goals, a league high.

1988: Trevor Linden.

1993: Pavel Bure.

1994: Kirk McLean.

1999: Brian Burke wheels and deals to land two high draft picks, giving the Canucks the Sedin twins, who will eventually become the best players in franchise history and the most reviled by fans.

2004: Hockey punch player.

2010: After years of suffering, a Canuck finally wins the Hart Trophy as the player who has been judged most valuable to his team. Tangible value in the playoffs: absolutely none.

Other sports books that have been commissioned by Canucks Sports & Entertainment include 'Counting to 13' by Jason Armstead and 'How to make friends and influence people' by Hedo Turkgolu.

Monday morning statgeek: Player volatility Vol. II

The term 'player volatility' is the number of goals scored on both nets while the player is on the ice per 60 minutes of play. A player with a high volatility means that they're at a risk to score and be scored on when they step out on the ice.

Dear me, Americans don't like hockey

The hockey media is up in arms over the Wisniewski gesture

thus they continue to direct attention to the Wisniewski gesture



It's not a throat slash. It's not anything violent. It didn't put anybody in physical harm. It didn't involve anybody except for James Wisniewski and Sean Avery, and shouldn't really offend anybody.

Sunday's hockey games offered a lot for the hockey media to pontificate on. New Jersey dressed 15 players due to salary cap contraints (there's a legal issue here), there was a big brawl in the St. Louis/Anaheim game that was out of reach (there's an unnecessary violence issue here), there have been nine head injuries so far this season (there's a player safety issue here).

So James Wisniewski told Sean Avery to blow him. I'm sure that nobody has ever done that. I'm sure no fan has ever done that. I'm sure that Sean Avery has a squeaky-clean track record and sensitive personality that would make him feel totally uncomfortable by a gesture like that.

Or completely the opposite. Preach, brothers.

Larry Brooks compares what Wisniewski did to what Sean Avery said about Elisha Cuthbert a few years back that led to a six-game Avery suspension.

Avery:

"But I'm sure nothing is going to happen to him because nothing ever happens.

"It's interesting you get a warning [from the officials] for something like that. Imagine if I did that. I'd be sent to rehab."

I thought what happened on the ice stayed on the ice, or something. (Somebody needs to re-write the unwritten code) Sean Avery displayed his inability to let go of Elisha Cuthbert to the media the way a crying failed contestant on American Idol yells to the judges that "ya'll haven't heard the last of me! Ya'll missed your chance!" James Wiesniewski didn't. He told Sean Avery to blow him. The only way this is a controversy is if Graham James is involved.

Damien Cox decided to compare the Wisniewski action to the Niklas Hjalmarsson hit, also from yesterday, which sent Pominville off the ice in a stretcher.



Ugly hit, yes. Suspension-worthy, yes. Malicious, no. Hjalmarsson is a guy who had 20 PIMs last year, all minors. Like Pominville, he got caught out of position and had a momentary lapse of judgment. This is the type of hit that puts somebody into the 'repeat offender' category and nothing more.

Does the NHL value class or safety more? Does is despise vulgarity more, or actions which put other players in unnecessary physical danger?

Class or safety? The only player who isn't safe when Hjalmarsson is on the ice is Marty Turco (Hjalmarsson is a -4 already this year)

After 20 years of seeing various nefarious misdeeds on the rink, I can't tell you with any honesty what will transpire in either case.

Nefarious misdeed? Is that a synonym for "isolated incident" which is what both of these cases are?

If Damien Cox is so concerned about class and protecting the children, maybe him and the rest of the hockey media who are so concerned should stop talking about it. TSN ran the video in their highlight package, except they blurred the gesture. Again, if TSN is concerned about the children, then don't show it.

It reminds of when Paul McCartney was asked by an interviewer whether he did drugs. McCartney said yes. The interviewer asked whether he was going to be seen as a bad influence, to which McCartney replied "I'm not the one publishing it."

Will one action deserve only a slap on the wrist, or both? Will Colin Campbell decide enough is enough and hammer both Wisnewski and Hjalmarsson?

Only Campbell knows, and as he awakes this morning, he probably doesn't know, either.

Well that makes a whole lot of sense. Thanks for clarifying it for me.

For what it's worth, Hjalmarsson deserves two or three games and a target on his back for the next time he does something like this, which may be never. Wisniewski deserves nothing until he starts slandering ex-girlfriends in the press or acting like a pest for being a pest on the ice reccurently and actually becomes a threat to the 'class' of the game.

Monday morning statgeek: An early look at volatility

We aren't as close to having Gabriel Desjardins analyze player trends and bring expert predictive analysis to Hockey Night in Canada, but for what it's worth, Ron MacLean wore a suit on Saturday that looks a bit like the one Sheldon Cooper sometimes wears in The Big Bang Theory.

[Twitpic courtesy of Ryan Classic]

Volatility, loosely explained, is the calculation of how many goals a player will be on the ice for in a 60-minute timespan, both for and against, powerplay and shorthanded. The idea is that your players with higher volatility are unpredictable and more can happen when they're on the ice.

Seeing as its so time-consuming and there's no guarantee that it will offer me any insight into player trends because it turns out goals are a completely random occurence, I'm only taking into account players for Canadian teams in these statistics.

Notably high players:

Mathieu Darche - 8.7 MIN played, 1 GF, 1 GA, 13.79 VOL
Zack Storini, 9.1 MIN played, 1 GF, 1 GA, 13.19 VOL
Nikolai Kulemin, 30.5 MIN played, 3 GF, 3 GA, 11.80 VOL
Mike Komisarek, 25.9 MIN played, 3 GF, 2 GA, 11.58 VOL
Mikael Grabovski, 31.5 MIN played, 3 GF, 2 GA, 3.52 VOL

Notably low players:

With several players at 0, it's best to note that Dan Hamhuis has played the most minutes without having been on the ice for a goal. The player who has played the most minutes without having surrendered a goal is Tomas Kaberle. The high forward is Tyler Bozak.

The other thing I get looking closer into the plus/minus stat is to determine goals for per minute and goals against per minute.

High goals for ratio:

Mike Cammaleri: 7.10 GF/60
Jim Vandermeer: 7.06 GF/60
Mike Komisarek: 9.95 GF/60

High goals against ratio:

Chris Phillips: 7.46 GA/60
Raitis Ivanans: 7.23 GA/60
Tanner Glass: 7.06 GA/60

These are early numbers, so take them with a grain of salt. Is Mike Komisarek not a steady stay-at-home defenseman? Should Ron Wilson skate Nikolai Kulemin instead of Phil Kessel as an extra-attacker? Is Raitis Ivanans better at blocking punches with his face than he is blocking shots? Will I get laid this month?

Statistically speaking, the sample size isn't high enough to generate a sure answer for all but one of those questions, but Monday morning statgeek will take a look at volatility ratings bi-weekly (the one that means once every two weeks, not the one that means twice a week).

Vancouver host Florida and Ottawa are in Washington tonight. Ottawa has two goals in two games, so if you were lucky enough to pick up Michael Neuvirth in your pool, today would be a good day to start him.

The Good Old Hockey Game - A look at the NHL season

The NHL season starts tomorrow, and every blog likes to put together a gimmicky look at the season. There's no reason The 'Eh' Factor can't get involved in this. Here are some lulz and predictions to get you ready for the season.

The NHL's hypothetical ultimatum would hypothetically benefit players

Before we get into anything, here's a solution for calculating a salary cap hit for long term deals: Instead of averaging out the salary over the course of the deal, simply rank the years in salary by descending order and apply that salary to the cap hit, so it drops throughout the deal.

By now, you're probably aware of the New York Post's Larry Brooks' report which offers that the NHL has given an ultimatum to the NHLPA over long contracts.

Brooks writes:

The Post has learned that Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly informed the still-leaderless and obviously rudderless NHLPA by e-mail late last night that the league would grandfather the recently re-submitted Kovalchuk 15-year, $100 million contract into the collective bargaining agreement, as well as Luongo's year-old, 12-year, $64 million contract and Hossa's year-old 12-year, $63.3 million contract, under the following conditions:

1. That the cap hit on future multiyear contracts will not count any season that ends with the player over 40 years of age. The cap hit would be based on the average salary of the seasons in the contract up to age 40.

2. That the cap hit on future contracts longer than five years would be calculated by granting additional weight -- perhaps the average -- to the five consecutive years with the largest average salary.

How much of a different do those years after age 40 make? If Roberto Luongo's contract were held to that standard, his $5.33 million cap hit would become a $6.71 million cap hit. Marian Hossa's contract with Chicago would jump from a $5.23 million hit to $6.7.

However, this is the New York Post, so there may never have been an ultimatum. Eklund killjoy Darren Dreger has already done the legwork to discredit Brooks. As much as long-term contracts are completely cheating and against the intent of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the solution to the front-loaded contract mess lies behind a simple solution that NHL executives craft up to strongarm the Players Association. I just don't buy that the PA is as adamant as the Brooks report makes them out to be over front-loaded contracts.

Front-loaded contracts are a way for teams to spend way more money on superstar players than they have to spend on your average blue collar NHL player. For every Marian Hossa, Henrik Zetterberg, Roberto Luongo, Daniel Briere or Chris Pronger, there are fifty Daniel Pailles or Zenon Konopkas, who already stand to lose a significant chunk of their paycheques due to escrow, so that their teams have the money to pay the longer-term contracts.

If this is the battle that new NHLPA executive director Donald Fehr wants to take on, then he's already lost the mostly apathetic player crowd. An NHL "win" in this case means that teams will have to dig harder to sign their biggest stars. Steven Stamkos is a free agent this summer, as is Zach Parise. And Shea Weber. Those three guys are so important for their hockey teams, particularly considering their markets. If anything, wouldn't the NHL *want* franchise players to stick with their teams? How is making long-term deals less workable at all beneficial to the National Hockey League?

From where I stand, the NHL may as well be asking that members of the NHLPA all play hockey or breathe oxygen. I get a sense that, if this strongarming is actually going down, that they look like the commander of the Imperial Star Fleet and Bettman is in charge of the weapons systems on the first Death Star. The entire scene is a useless argument, which is a plot device to let the filmmakers show us that Darth Vadar can choke people with his mind:



Hell, because of all this, the NHL may lose Ilya Kovalchuk to the Kontinental Hockey League.

We all love you, Brooksie, you make for great Youtube exchanges with John Tortorella, but I'm going to have to believe Darren Dreger on this one.

UPDATE: The Post is now reporting that the union are choosing to defer their vote to bring in Don Fehr anyway.

How the NHL network TV schedule affects Canadian teams

The National Hockey League released it's 2010/2011 network television schedule for both the Canadian and American markets on Wednesday. CBC, TSN and TSN2 will carry national games in Canada, along with the early game we'll see on NBC after New Year's.

National TV broadcasts get us into a nice routine. Saturday nights are for curling up on the couch and flipping on CBC, particularly after playing out on the pond, or spending the day sleeping off a hangover and playing video games. The weekday TSN games are great for when you come in after work or school, too bent out of shape to complain about Pierre McGuire.

TSN are advertising 124 games on TSN and TSN2 this season, although the TSN2 games tend to be picked up from Versus. Some highlights from the TSN2 schedule include:

Monday October 18th - Colorado @ NY Rangers
Monday November 29th - Dallas @ Carolina
Monday December 27th - Minnesota @ Columbus
Monday January 17th - Los Angeles @ Dallas
Monday February 14th - Washington @ Phoenix
Tuesday March 15th - Buffalo @ Carolina

Sure, maybe some of those games, along with others on the 48-game TSN2 schedule, won't be total stinkers, but the TSN2 games are either Versus pickups or games where an extra camera crew may happen to be leftover in the region. Subtract those and the six preseason games plus four games from Europe that are on during times nobody will be able to watch, and we're looking at a 66-game schedule. That's nothing to sneeze at, and the North American season starts off nicely with a double-header on October 13th, with Toronto in Pittsburgh and Vancouver in Anaheim.

All in all on TSN we're looking at a 66-game schedule, with eight double headers, so 58 days during the year where there will be a nationally-televised game featuring a Canadian. That is more than enough to get your truculence fix from the Maple Leafs or Flames.

CBC, as usual, offers up the usual Saturday doubleheader, plus a doubleheader on Thursday, October 7th with Montreal in Toronto and Calgary in Edmonton with some specially scattered games throughout the season.

The national broadcaster will also have tripleheaders on December 4th, New Year's Day (accounting for the Winter Classic, which falls on a Saturday this year), February 5th, Hockey Day In Canada on February 12th, March 12th, and on April 9th, the last Saturday of the regular season.

Some notes:

-All three Western Canadian teams will be broadcasted on either TSN or CBC a total of 24 times: 14 times on CBC and 10 times on TSN. The Toronto Maple Leafs see their 24th nationally televised game on January 25th. The Montreal Canadiens will see their 24th nationally televised game on January 18th. The Ottawa Senators will see their 24th nationally televised game in franchise history sometime next season.

-The Edmonton Oilers boast the number one draft pick who will likely play on the team, but they have no nationally televised games in the United States.

-The Vancouver Canucks will not see a Saturday night game against a Western Canadian foe until, get this, January 22nd against the Calgary Flames. The Oilers and the Canucks will only see each other once on CBC.

-As usual, every Montreal Canadiens game will be televised in Canada on specialty channel RDS, which can be bought from all of the major carriers in smooth standard definition.

The Expected Result: Damien Cox totally wrong on Kovalchuk ruling

Toronto Star writer and guilty conscience of every Canadian hockey fan came back from his vacation today, just in time to pen a blog post on how an independant arbitrator would uphold Ilya Kovalchuk's 17-year, $102-million contract.

"Most don't expect that [arbitrator Richard Bloch to uphold the NHL's decision] to happen," Cox writes, "and instead it's likely Ilya Kovalchuk will officially become a New Jersey Devil, with his controversial 17-year, $102 million deal approved."

I fail to comprehend who "most" is referring to. If Cox has an extensive list of labour lawyers and union experts to quote and draw his conclusions from, well, all the best to him. The thing is that he doesn't, and his source list is likely made up of ex-players and former agents--former agents for a reason--who have read the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement as extensively as we have, and have no more insight into the matter as that braindead co-worker.

Using an all-encompassing term like "most" without quoting sufficient sources is what seperates real journalists from schmos who, already having made a career, just mail in every column and offer no differing opinion than the majority of 7pm-10pm sports fans.

That being said, in the unlikely event that Bloch does not overturn the NHL's decision, we're told by Cox, in the same column, that "it's believed the Los Angeles Kings would be first in line to try and sign him," even though Dean Lomardi, General Manager of the Kings says that his team "weren't in the the ballpark" with the deal that the Devils initially signed Kovalchuk to.

Toss in a couple of Tomas Kaberle rumours, also with no substantial evidence to back up his claims, as click-bait, and you have your typical Damien Cox column, including a close-to-but-not-exceeding-400 word count.

So, an hour or so after Bloch decided to prove Damien Cox wrong, Cox came out with an apologetic response piece, explaining the ramifications of this whole thing. Reading is not reccomended.

Meanwhile, the NHL is looking at some possible rule changes

A presser from the NHL came out today offering some suggestions for rule changes, and announcing a training camp towards the end of August where the league will work it out.

Two veteran NHL coaches -- Ken Hitchcock and Dave King -- will take part in the camp and will be challenging the prospects with strategies which emphasize offensive play and creating scoring chances.

Right off the bat, I can tell you that something about Hitchcock's involvement makes me think they're doing it wrong.

Here is a list of potential rule changes:

Wednesday August 18 (all times ET; subject to change)

10:00 a.m. – Noon
* Hybrid icing rule;
* No line change for team committing an offside;
* Crease reset rule;
* Face-off variation (face-off controlled by whistle in place of traditional puck drop);
* Overtime: three minutes of 4-on-4; three minutes of 3-on-3; three minutes of 2-on- 2 followed by shootout (5 players per team).

2:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.
* Bigger crease;
* Verification goal line (additional line situated behind the goal line);
* Wider blue lines;
* Line changes zone in front of each bench;
* Face-off variations (infringement results in the offending player moving back further, three face-off dots down the middle of the ice);
* No icing the puck while shorthanded;
* OT – three minutes of 4-on-4; three minutes of 3-on-3; three minutes of 2-on-2 with long line changes; followed by three shooters per team shootout (if tied after three shots then players who have shot previously can shoot again).

Thursday August 19 (all times ET; subject to change)

9:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
* No touch icing;
* Team that commits an offside infraction cannot make a line change and face-off is in offending team zone;
* Face-off variation: after a face-off violation, opposition center may choose his face-off opponent;
* Second referee located off the playing surface;
* Delayed penalty rule
* No icing the puck while shorthanded;
* OT – 4-on-4 (with long line change) followed by a shootout with five players.

1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
* Variations of special teams play;
* OT – 4-on-4 (with long line change).

Other than the modified overtime rules and no touch icing, this camp reeks of a total overhaul of games that are exciting enough already. Weren't the playoffs a blast? Haven't we decided that, with Antti Niemi and Michael Leighton as starting goalies in the Cup Finals, that the goaltending era in hockey is over?

Sure, the state of the game in 2004 allowed the NHL to take a look at itself and make some overdue rule changes, but the most effective change was enforcing the rules they already had, as in actually calling hooks and holds, (during the regular season anyways).

Back in 2004 there was a tie for the league goal-scoring lead at 41 between Ilya Kovalchuk, Jarome Iginla and Rick Nash. Three players cracked 50 this year, and to possibly show how meaningless rule changes are, keep in mind that neither Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos or Alexander Ovechkin were playing back in '04.

Some things can be tinkered with: the overtime format, the puck-over-glass rule, the two-referee system and touch icing. Hell, when you're worried about head shots and concussions, you may as well also institute shoulder and elbow pad regulations.

But bigger creases? Face-off dots down the middle? How about a coloured zone in front of the net where defensive players aren't allowed to stand? Let's not get into the total insanity of a 'verification goal-line' since physics dictates that a puck can be both fully across the line, but not a full puck's length across the line.

Perhaps the only good that can come of this is Down Goes Brown's inevitable 'other rule changes the NHL attempted.'

Until then, a camp looking at increasing scoring hosted by Ken Hitchcock and Ken King at the Toronto Maple Leafs' practice facility, where goals and dreams go to die.