Monday, October 25, 2010

Monday morning statgeek: Player volatility Vol. II

The term 'player volatility' is the number of goals scored on both nets while the player is on the ice per 60 minutes of play. A player with a high volatility means that they're at a risk to score and be scored on when they step out on the ice.

With a slightly higher sample size than two weeks ago, I've set the minimum threshold at ten minutes played per game and at least four games. Here are your top five:

CGY - Matt Stajan - 10.82
EDM - Jordan Eberle - 8.08
OTT - Brian Lee - 8.00
OTT - Jason Spezza - 7.83
CGY - Cory Sarich - 7.59

The highest player for the remaining teams are:

TOR - Nikolai Kulemin - 7.43
VAN - Henrik Sedin - 6.80
MTL - Jaroslav Spacek - 5.87

With 4 games played and at least ten minutes per game, the players with the lowest volatility are:

VAN - Keith Ballard - 1.22
VAN - Jannick Hansen - 1.54
EDM - Gilbert Brule - 2.25
MTL - Travis Moen - 2.28
TOR - Freddy Sjostrom - 2.29

Lowest per remaining teams:

CGY - Steve Staios - 3.06
OTT - Alex Kovalev - 3.47

On the powerplay, for players who have played a significant amount of PP time:

VAN - Henrik Sedin - 24.00
VAN - Daniel Sedin - 24.00
VAN - Alexander Edler - 23.08
VAN - Christian Ehrhoff - 20.00
VAN - Ryan Kesler - 18.52

Yes, that would be the entire Vancouver Canucks first powerplay unit. The Canucks are 7th in the NHL at a 21.9% effectiveness rate. For other teams:

OTT - Mike Fisher - 16.00
EDM - Taylor Hall - 11.76
CGY - Rene Bourque - 11.11
MTL - Benoit Pouliot 8.33
TOR - Dion Phaneuf 7.89

As far as players who are terribly ineffective on the powerplay go:

MTL - PK Subban - 0.00 in 28 PP minutes
EDM - Tom Gilbert - 0.00 in 24 PP minutes
CGY - Steve Staios - 0.00 in 22 PP minutes
TOR - Francois Beauchemin - 0.00 in 17 PP minutes
OTT - Peter Regin - 0.00 in 9 PP minutes
VAN - Mason Raymond - 6.25 in 16 PP minutes

The lesson here is that PK Subban has played all kinds of minutes without giving up a shorthanded goal, like a true superstar does.

Shorthanded statistics:

EDM - Jordan Eberle - 66.67
EDM - Tom Gilbert - 46.67
EDM - Shawn Horcoff - 41.67
EDM - Randy Jones - 41.67
EDM - Colin Fraser - 38.46
EDM - Ryan Whitney - 37.50
EDM - Jim Vandermeer - 33.33
EDM - Ladislav Smid - 27.27

The scary thing is that I only left three players off of that list to account for a small sample size in shorthanded minutes (Rene Bourque, TJ Brodie and Roman Hamrlik) and two Oilers as well (Andrew Cogliano and Theo Peckham). Tied for the league low in kill percentage, Edmonton have also scored two shorthanded goals off the stick of Jordan Eberle.

May want to put Gilbert Brule on that unit.

VAN - Peter Schaefer - 22.22
MTL - Dustin Boyd - 20.00
TOR - Dion Phaneuf - 15.38
OTT - Mike Fisher - 14.29
CGY - Robyn Regehr - 12.50

(The threshold I used for special team statistics was 9 minutes of play)

Most shorthanded minutes, zero goals allowed? Luke Schenn defenders, rejoice:

TOR - Luke Schenn - 24 SH minutes
TOR - Carl Gunnarsson - 19 SH minutes
TOR - Freddy Sjostrom - 19 SH minutes
TOR - Tim Brent - 19 SH minutes

CGY - Craig Conroy - 17 SH minutes
VAN - Jannik Hansen - 16 SH minutes
OTT - Daniel Alfredsson - 16 SH minutes
MTL - Jeff Halpern - 15 SH minutes
EDM - Andrew Cogliano - 4 SH minutes

Finally, your top five players as far as goals for while on ice per minute goes (4 games/10 minutes):

CGY - Matt Stajan - 6.89
TOR - Mikael Grabovski - 5.08
VAN - Henrik Sedin - 4.80
CGY - Rene Bourque - 4.72
OTT - Jason Spezza - 4.57

MTL - Mike Cammelleri - 4.56
EDM - Ales Hemsky - 3.82

And top five as far as goals against while on ice per minute (4 games/10 minutes):

VAN - Peter Schaefer - 4.85
EDM - Jordan Eberle - 4.62
OTT - Chris Kelly - 4.62
EDM - Shawn Horcoff - 4.36
EDM - Tom Gilbert 4.35

OTT - Chris Phillips - 4.14
CGY - Matt Stajan - 3.93
TOR - Kulemin/Beachemin - 3.72

So there you have it. This can be interpreted in many, many different ways (or none at all) but I'd like to say that this is conclusive proof that the Canucks need to cut Peter Schaefer right now.

I'll also leave you with this:

CGY - Brendan Morrison - 8 GP/125 MIN - 6 EV GF, 1 EV GA, 2 PP GF, 4.32 VOL (3.84 positive, 0.48 negative)

God damnit Vigneault.

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