Volatility measures the number of total goals per 60 minutes a player was on the ice for. The idea is that goals are more likely to occur when certain players are on the ice.
It took a couple of weeks, but it appears that Tom Renney has officially nixed the dreaded 10 - 14 - 6 - 77 penalty killing unit that was responsible for ten powerplay goals against. Last night against Chicago his top unit on the first powerplay of the game for the Hawks was Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner, Jim Vandermeer and Ryan Whitney. Shawn Horcoff saw just 25 shorthanded seconds and the defensively inept Tom Gilbert has been placed on a unit with Theo Peckham.
Showing posts with label Monday Morning statgeek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Monday Morning statgeek. Show all posts
Monday, November 8, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Monday morning statgeek: Player volatility Vol. II
The term 'player volatility' is the number of goals scored on both nets while the player is on the ice per 60 minutes of play. A player with a high volatility means that they're at a risk to score and be scored on when they step out on the ice.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Monday morning statgeek: An early look at volatility
We aren't as close to having Gabriel Desjardins analyze player trends and bring expert predictive analysis to Hockey Night in Canada, but for what it's worth, Ron MacLean wore a suit on Saturday that looks a bit like the one Sheldon Cooper sometimes wears in The Big Bang Theory.
[Twitpic courtesy of Ryan Classic]
Volatility, loosely explained, is the calculation of how many goals a player will be on the ice for in a 60-minute timespan, both for and against, powerplay and shorthanded. The idea is that your players with higher volatility are unpredictable and more can happen when they're on the ice.
Seeing as its so time-consuming and there's no guarantee that it will offer me any insight into player trends because it turns out goals are a completely random occurence, I'm only taking into account players for Canadian teams in these statistics.
Notably high players:
Mathieu Darche - 8.7 MIN played, 1 GF, 1 GA, 13.79 VOL
Zack Storini, 9.1 MIN played, 1 GF, 1 GA, 13.19 VOL
Nikolai Kulemin, 30.5 MIN played, 3 GF, 3 GA, 11.80 VOL
Mike Komisarek, 25.9 MIN played, 3 GF, 2 GA, 11.58 VOL
Mikael Grabovski, 31.5 MIN played, 3 GF, 2 GA, 3.52 VOL
Notably low players:
With several players at 0, it's best to note that Dan Hamhuis has played the most minutes without having been on the ice for a goal. The player who has played the most minutes without having surrendered a goal is Tomas Kaberle. The high forward is Tyler Bozak.
The other thing I get looking closer into the plus/minus stat is to determine goals for per minute and goals against per minute.
High goals for ratio:
Mike Cammaleri: 7.10 GF/60
Jim Vandermeer: 7.06 GF/60
Mike Komisarek: 9.95 GF/60
High goals against ratio:
Chris Phillips: 7.46 GA/60
Raitis Ivanans: 7.23 GA/60
Tanner Glass: 7.06 GA/60
These are early numbers, so take them with a grain of salt. Is Mike Komisarek not a steady stay-at-home defenseman? Should Ron Wilson skate Nikolai Kulemin instead of Phil Kessel as an extra-attacker? Is Raitis Ivanans better at blocking punches with his face than he is blocking shots? Will I get laid this month?
Statistically speaking, the sample size isn't high enough to generate a sure answer for all but one of those questions, but Monday morning statgeek will take a look at volatility ratings bi-weekly (the one that means once every two weeks, not the one that means twice a week).
Vancouver host Florida and Ottawa are in Washington tonight. Ottawa has two goals in two games, so if you were lucky enough to pick up Michael Neuvirth in your pool, today would be a good day to start him.
[Twitpic courtesy of Ryan Classic]
Volatility, loosely explained, is the calculation of how many goals a player will be on the ice for in a 60-minute timespan, both for and against, powerplay and shorthanded. The idea is that your players with higher volatility are unpredictable and more can happen when they're on the ice.
Seeing as its so time-consuming and there's no guarantee that it will offer me any insight into player trends because it turns out goals are a completely random occurence, I'm only taking into account players for Canadian teams in these statistics.
Notably high players:
Mathieu Darche - 8.7 MIN played, 1 GF, 1 GA, 13.79 VOL
Zack Storini, 9.1 MIN played, 1 GF, 1 GA, 13.19 VOL
Nikolai Kulemin, 30.5 MIN played, 3 GF, 3 GA, 11.80 VOL
Mike Komisarek, 25.9 MIN played, 3 GF, 2 GA, 11.58 VOL
Mikael Grabovski, 31.5 MIN played, 3 GF, 2 GA, 3.52 VOL
Notably low players:
With several players at 0, it's best to note that Dan Hamhuis has played the most minutes without having been on the ice for a goal. The player who has played the most minutes without having surrendered a goal is Tomas Kaberle. The high forward is Tyler Bozak.
The other thing I get looking closer into the plus/minus stat is to determine goals for per minute and goals against per minute.
High goals for ratio:
Mike Cammaleri: 7.10 GF/60
Jim Vandermeer: 7.06 GF/60
Mike Komisarek: 9.95 GF/60
High goals against ratio:
Chris Phillips: 7.46 GA/60
Raitis Ivanans: 7.23 GA/60
Tanner Glass: 7.06 GA/60
These are early numbers, so take them with a grain of salt. Is Mike Komisarek not a steady stay-at-home defenseman? Should Ron Wilson skate Nikolai Kulemin instead of Phil Kessel as an extra-attacker? Is Raitis Ivanans better at blocking punches with his face than he is blocking shots? Will I get laid this month?
Statistically speaking, the sample size isn't high enough to generate a sure answer for all but one of those questions, but Monday morning statgeek will take a look at volatility ratings bi-weekly (the one that means once every two weeks, not the one that means twice a week).
Vancouver host Florida and Ottawa are in Washington tonight. Ottawa has two goals in two games, so if you were lucky enough to pick up Michael Neuvirth in your pool, today would be a good day to start him.
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