98 Reasons, and a look at the Grey Cup

98 Reasons I love the CFL

98 - Seats on the 55-yard line.
97 - $8 beer in hand.
96 - The fact that Pilsners were sold out before kickoff at last year's Grey Cup.
95 - The Legend of Doug Flutie.
94 - Lui Passaglia's kick to beat the Baltimore Stallions.
93 - Nik Lewis' hurdle earlier this season.
92 - "Frito Ray with Pringle in the backfield" - The old Eskimo chips!
91 - Watching ESPN Classic and counting the number of different uniforms you'll see on Damon Allen.
90 - Fireworks in the uprights that go off after touchdowns.

A brief look at Hockey Night in Canada

In a move up there with the Edmonton Oilers firing their training staff, the butthurt guys at the Ottawa Citizen suggested last week that the team ban Toronto Maple Leaf fans from Senators' home games.

Why is this relevant? Because the Leafs and Sens game is the early game on Hockey Night tonight; neither team is really good this year at a combined 18-26 and both team has found a way to manage a loss to the other!

Here's a post on the CFL playoffs and award finalists

Well, would you look at that? Playoffs have already come around. While the CIS are midway through their playoff run (and we'll get to that, just as soon as we have a little bit of free time on the weekend) the CFL starts its second season Sunday with a pair of games in the East and West Semifinals.

For a bit of a primer, here is each teams' record since Labour Day:

Some CFL thoughts headed into final week

The last few weeks of the CFL season are usually 'playing for nothing but pride' time, but this year has actually had one of the more compelling playoff races in recent years.

Maybe it's just because both teams started off so bad. Maybe it's because the talent pool is pretty lousy this year. But both the Edmonton Eskimos and BC Lions have been hot lately--the Esks have won 5 of 6 and the Lions 4 of 6, with both of their losses coming in overtime.

A (very) brief look at this week's CFL games

Last week the Lions managed to somehow a) hold onto a lead and b) win at McMahon for the second consecutive time. That gave the Lions just as many wins at McMahon Stadium this year as they have all year at Empire Field.

Point being, it looked like the Leos playoff fortunes will secure until Jared Zabransky went all not-Ricky Ray over the Roughriders. He didn't put up astonishing numbers, even for a rookie, but he held onto the ball and let the Esks running game control the flow.

By the way, last week was the first game in which Zabransky played start to finish since the 2007 Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma as a member of Boise State, in what remains the most entertaining football game ever played.

Oddly enough, the most important game this week is Edmonton/Winnipeg, in which Paul LaPolice is starting fourth-string quarterback Joey Elliot. It is officially October.

In the Eastern playoff race, Toronto need a miracle to get another home game. They need to win both games, backs-to-back against Montreal, and for Hamilton to lose both of theirs. The Als have locked up first place in the East, but they've never been a team historically to slow down once clinching. Maybe this changes with Anthony Calvillo having been injured earlier this year.

We don't have a cold weather game alert this week, but we do have rain in forecast in Vancouver for Sunday, in what will surely quell Lions fans love of Empire Stadium and make them pine for that $545 million roof.

Montreal @ TORONTO (+4)
Hamilton @ CALGARY (-4)
Winnipeg @ EDMONTON (-7)
Saskatchewan (+3.5) @ BC

Signoff... not an optimist right now.

Wally's Lament, and other CFL Week 17 storylines

I am very proud of the Globe and Mail's Matthew Sekeres:

If his name weren’t Wally Buono, there would be grounds to fire the man in charge of the B.C. Lions.

The rest of Sekeres' story 'Buono's catchet begins to fade', is required reading.

Wally started the season by not having enough non-imported starters and ended last week by fluking out an overtime game with a 48-yard field goal from a kicker he didn't even know he had dressed.

You can forgive the occasional coaching mistake during the course of the game because things are happening so fast on the sideline and you need to get the right personnel on the field. Hours before gametime, not so much. Buono put backup kicker Sean Whyte on the 42-man roster and accidentally left actual kicker Paul McCallum off of it.

Wally was always a fan of cutting players before they hit their career decline (except for any player who was important during the 2004 season) but David Braley's failure to let Buono go before he went batshit senile turned out to be the difference between landing Eric Tillman as your new GM and anybody not named Eric Tillman.

With the playoff races decided for the most part, the story shifts to concussions. Andrew Bucholtz, as always, was on top of this one in the CFL Internet world.

Three NFL players were fined for helmet-to-helmet hits last week, and that's a step in the right direction. James Harrison of the Steelers, recipient of one of the fines, said that he's contemplating retirement because he feels the ability to go out onto the field and acting like a brutish, braindead asshole are compromised. If Harrison retired, there would be another step in the right direction.

Football is a physical game, but the more concussions are in the game, the more likely we won't have any football to watch because some sappy political organization, likely NDP contributors, named Mothers Against Violence in Football (or, as Jon Stewart would say: NAMBLA) will try to stop everybody's kids from looking like roid-induced maniacs at the linebacker position.

I equate the concussion problem in football to the clutching-and-grabbing problem that was apparent in hockey before the lockout. The NHL came out in their post-lockout season with a slew of new rules that made it impossible to watch a penalty-free game. Watch a game now compared to one from ten years ago, and you notice a lot less stickwork and players have more room to move. As a result, youth coaches and players are learning to avoid stick infractions and the like, and in fifteen years, as a result of this, the game will be better still because players won't know to use their sticks or hold when somebody blows by them--they'll turn around and skate to catch up to them.

In football, we'll see a similar thing: youth defensive players will learn to stop leading with the helmet, reducing the liklihood that a strong safety will be able to press a running back's brain against a newspaper and create a print impression.

Predictions:

Montreal (-1) @ Hamilton
BC @ Calgary (-9.5)
Toronto @ Winnipeg (-3.5)
Saskatchewan (-2.5) @ Edmonton

Early notice: there is a chance of precipitation in Edmonton on Sunday, and the early forecast calls for a low of -1. A snow game? Pretty please?

A brief look at CFL Week 15

This week features four rematches of last week's games, two of which were oddly compelling.

Edmonton @ Hamilton - Friday Night. Hamilton weather is sunny, high of 23, low of 9. Weather should not be an issue.

Toronto @ Saskatchewan - Saturday evening. Similar weather to Hamilton, but the wind is often an issue at Mosaic Stadium, and is certainly more of an issue where (presumably) half the kicks will be fielded by Chad Owens.

Calgary @ Montreal - Monday afternoon. A little chilly at McGill, but that's about it.

BC @ Winnipeg - Monday evening. High, sunny temperatures at CanadInns Stadium. It's friggin October, are you meaning to tell me that we won't see anybody's breath, Mr. Weather Report?

First things first: Saskatchewan can clinch a home-field game with a win and a BC loss, but if neither scenario pans out, it's not exactly a problem. They have enough of a lead to not have to worry about losing out on ticket revenue at Mosaic in November.

In the East, both losers of two-straight, it appears that Hamilton and Toronto have entered "choke-off" mode into determining the final home playoff position. This week, it's advantage: Hamilton, who play at home against the league's second worst team. Well, unless the magical accountability board has anything to say about it.

Pick: Hamilton -4

Saskatchewan is favoured by 11 points in Saturday's tilt, which is hovering around league average for point spread, until you consider that Vegas only expects 49 points out of this game. Toronto's offense sucks, and I really hate to say it, but Jim Barker may want to think about giving Danny Brannagan some snaps. Like it or not, people will be looking at Brannagan to start for this team out of camp next year unless the Argos make serious changes at the QB position.

Pick: Toronto +11

Just sit back and enjoy the Montreal/Calgary game. Montreal are clearly going to head into the playoffs headfirst rather than wading in and playing safe in the last few weeks. Calgary need to secure home field. Ballhawking secondaries and laser rocket arms on both sides.

Pick: Montreal -3

With Buck Pierce still on the shelf, the Bombers have decided to turn toWashington St. Cougar Alex Brink at quarterback on Monday. Unless he can Lulay leap, I'm not scared:



*Sound editing not done by me*

Pick: BC +4

Also, here are your import roster additions who you will begin to hear more of next year.

The Good Old Hockey Game - A look at the NHL season

The NHL season starts tomorrow, and every blog likes to put together a gimmicky look at the season. There's no reason The 'Eh' Factor can't get involved in this. Here are some lulz and predictions to get you ready for the season.

A brief look at the week's CFL games

So you may have noticed that this blog's CFL coverage is scaling backwards. No, this doesn't mean a series of layoffs have hurt the 'Eh' Factor's editorial content, it just means that the CFL playoffs race has become vapid and uninteresting, and while I still love watching the games, meaningful play is become increasingly rare in this 18-game, 6-out-of-8-teams in the playoffs puzzle.

Even though Calgary has dropped a couple and find themselves just a game ahead of Saskatchewan, they still have another game between each other. Toronto and Hamilton are neck-and-neck in the East, but as it turns out, you can't look at either team and say that they deserve home-field.

The way to fix this is to hold off on gimmicky late-season games in Moncton and actually expand the league by two teams and reduce the number of playoff teams to four. Fewer matchups against the same opponents and more games that will tangibly matter. Though your most intriguing matchup on paper this week is Calgary/Montreal, the one that really matters is BC/Winnipeg.

Ah well, enough with the whining.

Montreal/Calgary - Tonight at 9:

Unfortunately, with a bit of a sunny spell hitting Western Canada, its October and there's no cold weather games to speak of this week. Anthony Calvillo threw for 477 yards last week and could have hit 500 if it weren't for some illegal play by Winnipeg defensive backs. Also, he's an absolute beast. Ben Cahoon hit 1000 career catches last week, with two big ones on that final drive, and needs seven to pass former Alouette Terry Vaughn for the all-time record.

Calgary have dropped two straight, with last week's performance against BC going down as one of the dreaded good-teams-looking-like-pure-shit games. This isn't an important game for the Stampeders with just the standings in mind, but if they lose here, they go on the road for consecutive weeks into Montreal and into Saskatchewan, which is the only really tough stretch on their schedule.

Interesting stat: While Henry Burris and Anthony Calvillo have pretty well locked horns for Most Outstanding Player finalists (after all, this can only go to a quarterback, right?) their respective backups Drew Tate and Ricky Santos boast perfect passer ratings at 158.3.

Winnipeg/BC - Saturday at 10:

Holy hell, the Lions have won 3 of 4! Travis Lulay is going to start! The Lions invaded McMahon with a balanced offense last week! Yonus Davis is a little bit of awesome running back kicks (see what I did there?) Things are looking good in BC, although with six weeks left in the regular season, I'm weary they make be peaking too early.

Winnipeg have dropped 3 of 4, (the loss last week, though, can ENTIRELY be chalked up to the officials, though, right?) Steven Jyles had a QB rating of 137 last week, put 40 points up on the board against the apparently vaunted Montreal defense and still managed to lose.

Thanks to the cross-over, this game, and their subsequent matchup at CanadInns Stadium are quite important. Can BC, already one game up, stare down Winnipeg from their rearview mirror once this is all over, or will the Bombers leap-frog the Lions for that chance to go play at Mosaic in the middle of November? Or, more likely, will the teams split the home-and-home and have a choke-off in the final month to determine entry to the playoffs?

Saskatchewan/Toronto - Saturday at 3:

Toronto get to debut their new starting quarterback, Dalton Bell. We know this story: since Lemon made the team coming out of camp, it would be unfair for him to lose his job due to an injury. This means Bell will put up good numbers for the couple of weeks Lemon is out, and Jim Barker will completely not pull an Andy Reid and bring Lemon back to continue getting sacked, throwing interceptions and underthrowing mid-range receivers.

Hamilton/Edmonton - Sunday at 4:30

I hate to say it, but do you know what looks better to watch from a fan perspective on Sunday? All four late afternoon NFL games, yes, even Houston/Oakland. Hamilton are a mediocre 6-6 beating the week teams on their schedule. Edmonton flat-out suck, pulling a decent performance out of their asses ever so often. This could not be a more unintriguing matchup, unless a freak blizzard hits Edmonton. I would gladly watch a 7-6 game for that.

This week in the CFL...

For what the CFL has lacked on on-field drama this season, the off-field business was certainly worthy of an Oscar bid and a starring role in M Night Shyamalan's next picture.

This week in the CFL...

Calgary Stampeders (8-1) (-10) @ Edmonton Eskimos (2-7) O/U 55.5
Today at 9:00
Weather report: Light showers - 14/7

One of my favourite things about sports is that, on any given day, on any given field of play, any team has the chance to win. Unless they're the Edmonton Eskimos playing against somebody other than their scout team. In their last two meetings, the Stampeders have beaten the Eskimos by a combined score of 108-20.

Take the Stampeders and the over.

Montreal Alouettes (6-3) @ Hamilton TIger-Cats (5-4) (-3.5) O/U 53.5
Saturday at 1:00
Weather report: Mostly sunny - 22/13

So Montreal has lost 2 of 3 and are already showing signs of rotting. Hamilton has won four straight. Anthony Calvillo will not dress for the game, which sounds dirtier than it actually is. Rodnei Santos/Chris Leak will not necessarily be a boon to Hamilton's fifth ranked pass defense, but certainly help a team that is still vulnerable through the air.

Take the Tiger-Cats to cover, and the under. According to the official rankings, this should be the game of the week. Since no game has two legitimate starting quarterbacks, I guess we'll have to take their word for it.

Toronto Argonauts (5-4) @ BC Lions (2-7) (-6) O/U 49
Saturday at 4:05
Weather report: Light rain - 18/12

Light rain in Vancouver typically involves a storm that would be given a name on the East Coast, so there's a high chance that Toronto's passing game could be worse. Oddly enough, Cleo Lemon's passer rating has been pretty average, even in the past couple of weeks where he's thrown no touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cory Boyd will probably see his touches increase in bad weather, and BC has the second worst run defense in the league. What's worse? BC has not won at Empire Field since beating the Montreal Concordes back on November 6th in 1982.

Take the Argos plus six and the under.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-3) (-4.5) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-7) O/U 57
Sunday at 1:05
Weather report: Partly cloudy - 16/7

Oobleck is also in the forecast for Sunday. If you don't know your Oobleck, you'd better learn your Dr. Seuss. Oobleck is a mysterious green substance that descends upon your city and doesn't leave, much like Rider fans. This game sold out faster than Stevie Baggs looking for an NFL career. Fun fact: Winnipeg has not won since team officials banned the beer snake.

Take Saskatchewan minus the points, as well as the under.

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Related: Last night the NFL kicked off with two high scoring offenses playing to a dramatic 14-9 win. All we need is UFL season to start and football season will be officially on!

CFL Labour Day Weekend preview

August sucks.

August really sucks as a sports month, and it sucks as a month in general. Temperatures are abnormally hot and the sports world is abnormally cool. Compare it to October, say, where we have hockey, three football leagues, basketball training camps and baseball playoffs, as well as collegiate sports across the country. In August, we have a few baseball games, 3rd quarters in the NFL preseason and the WNBA.

BUT! August is over. This is perhaps why I love Labour Day weekend so much. My team, the Lions, don't even have a rivalry and I love it. I love how the Battle of Ontario actually means something this year. I love the name 'Banjo Bowl'. This is the end of summer. That long, hot, egregiously annoying summer is over. Bring on winter. This is Canada.

BC Lions (1-7) @ Montreal Alouettes (6-2) (-10) O/U 50
Tonight at 7:35
Gameday weather: Sunny, high of 31, low of 16.

Montreal beat British Columbia back at Empire Stadium back in Week 3 without scoring a touchdown, so at least they're ready for the Chris Leak era, however short it may be. How bad are the Lions? So bad that the Alouettes are playing their backup quarterback, who has as much sway in a football game as the long snapper's rottweiler, and are still favoured by 10 points.

Basic numbers through eight weeks:

Montreal, 269 points. BC, 135. Montreal, 322 passing yards per game. BC, 244. Montreal, 18 passing touchdowns. BC, 5, spread across just two different games.

If Anthony Calvillo were playing, this game would be such a mismatch that the United Nations would get involved. Luckily, he isn't, and BC may have a chance to win this game if they effectively blitz and get that mobile secondary creating Interceptions. Yonus Davis, the CFL's Special Teams player of August, is also where the Lions hold a slight advantage, which is big in a league where one or two big returns can change the course of the game. BC has yet to allow a return touchdown, but that could also mean the team hasn't kicked the ball off enough to allow the other team the chance.

I'm going to say BC covers and the teams play to the under.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-6) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-3) (-10.5) O/U 57
Sunday at 4:05
Gameday weather: Thundershowers, high of 21, low of 7

The other good thing about August coming to an end is all the thunderstorm threats that pop up around Mosaic Field on any given week. For the longest time before the Roughriders started winning playoff games, this was the most important day on the football calendar, and it has a very anti-climatic feel to it.

Saskatchewan still has a shot at landing the first place bye in the West Division despite being two games back after that ridiculous loss to Edmonton last week. Darian Durant, though, is lucky that the Bombers don't have any ballhawks in the secondary, because he's been throwing picks at an impressive rate lately. In a league of eight starting quarterbacks, Durant has the seventh best passer rating.

Ten and a half looks like a lot to cover, but the Riders offense is good enough, and have blown out opponents by more than that in three of their five wins. I may as well take the over as well and look for a 40-20 or so score, in honour of college football returning.

Toronto Argonauts (5-3) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-4) (-4.5) O/U 51
Monday at 2:35
Gameday weather: Partly cloudy, high of 24, low of 15

This game is, for once, important, and not just in a "fighting for pride" sort of way that it has been in God knows how many years past. But it would mean so much more if the CFL had four playoff teams rather than six.

Digressing, this game is so even its ridiculous. Did you know that Toronto actually give up more yards and first downs than any other team? Most of that goes through the air. As the league's worst passing defense, Toronto allow 68.8 per cent of passes to be completed, and give up 324.5 passing yards a game.

Meanwhile, Hamilton is the league's second best passing game, but are third worst in rushing defense, where Toronto continues to shine despite their drop off in defensive play from the start of the year. Cory Boyd continues to lead the league in rushing and total yards from scrimmage. His receiver/return-man counterpart Chad Owens leads the league in total yards, over 200 more than the great rookie Marcus Thigpen on the Hamilton sideline.

We have yet to have a game in the CFL this year where both teams' strengths match up well against the other team's weaknesses like this. Keep in mind the two teams are numbers one and two in the Excitement Rankings this blog maintains. Get up early and set your PVRs, because this one may yet be worth keeping.

I'm going to give the edge to Hamilton. Ivor Wynne is sold out, and four and a half points is a very reasonable number. Take the over, as well.

Edmonton Eskimos (2-6) @ Calgary Stampeders (7-1) (-12.5) O/U 54
Monday at 6:00
Gameday weather: Partly cloudy, high of 11, low of 4

So Edmonton eked out a win against Saskatchewan last week by grinding out a game during which the football gods were drunk and simply wanted to toy with both teams and their offenses.

In case you haven't noticed, Henry Burris actually does lead the league in interceptions, and Edmonton actually are tied for the lead league in interception returns. It's about there that Edmonton's advantages end, because Calgary has the tightest, most efficient defense in the league, which leads the following categories:

-First downs
-Rushing first downs
-Passing first downs
-Yards allowed
-Net yards rushing
-Average gain per rush
-Passes allowed
-Lowest completion percentage
-Points per game
-Quarterback sacks
-Passing TDs
-TDs allowed
-Fewest points

While Toronto has the league's best running back, Calgary has the league's best rushing team. Joffrey Reynolds, Jon Cornish and Henry Burris have each more than 200 yards on the ground. Reynolds has yet to fumble the football, in 101 attempts. Conversely, the Eskimos have the league's worst rushing defense.

This is such a mismatch on paper that I'm willing to completely forget last week's upset, and determine that this is going to be a total blowout and such a catastrophic end to the summer from which we will not recover.

Give Calgary the 12.5 points, plus a little extra, but take the under, because I don't think Calgary will score more than 50 points.

Now that I have sufficiently jinxed the Stampeders, we have a chance to watch a good football game. Have a good weekend. The 'Eh' factor will return on Tuesday after the long weekend, unless something big happens.

CFL Week 9 preview

Here we are, Week 9--the last of the bye weeks.

A lot of websites that offer odds and tell you which way to bet keep a running record of how they've done. Since I started doing this about a quarter of the way through the season, my record against the point spreads and over/under is easily over .500.

Am I not checking because I'm worried that my record is worse than what I say it is? Not at all. Am I lazy? Partly. So why bring it up? Because when we have probably the best two teams in the CFL playing two of the worst this weekend, an upset will stem only if either Calgary or Saskatchewan don't show up, or its a total fluke. Rock-solid analysis won't be able to predict anything here.

I was originally going to be in Vancouver for the Lions and Stampeders game, but my plans changed, and I will now spend my weekend sitting around in my underwear playing Madden '11, which really need to add a CFL feature. A few years ago, EA Sports' NHL titles had custom rules where you could play on European-size ice, and they continue to offer European teams in the NHL series that nobody will play except Europeans. How about a CFL mode for the rest of us?

Calgary Stampeders (6-1) @ BC Lions (1-6, +5) O/U 52
Today at 10:30

Calgary won by five last time these two met at Empire, and that's the closest that the Lions have won to winning at home outdoors since some time back in the 70s. In that game, I felt that BC really, really, really had a chance, but the offense just couldn't put it together. To offer some Glen Suitor-type analysis, if the Lions' defense is as strong as it was the first time these two teams met, but the offense is drawn up a little better and executes better, BC has a chance.

Take Calgary -5, and the under. As far as Jarious Jackson incomplete hail mary passes go, whatever the number is, take the over.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-2) @ Edmonton Eskimos (1-6, +6) O/U 55

One of the big question marks about this season is, who are more hopeless? The Lions or the Eskimos? Edmonton came close to beating Saskatchewan at Mosaic earlier this year back in Week 3, after giving up a 20-13 fourth quarter lead.

For a while Edmonton was just bad in the second half. They gave up a sure win to Montreal thanks to a Fred Stamps dropped pass. Now they're just bad all around and drop passes in every quarter.

So, for posterity's sake, take Saskatchewan -6 and the under. I am not convinced the Edmonton triple-QB offense can generate anything against the different defensive packages Saskatchewan comes out with. Jared Zabransky can't even throw those hook-and-lateral plays, because even if the initial pass to Kelly Campbell is complete, Kamau Petersen will just drop the lateral.

Week 8 CFL preview, the slog towards Labour Day

Week eight in the CFL is upon us, and this slog of a midseason continues to hang over our heads as we continue to watch these games, moreso out of guilt than anything, eschewing the final days of summer with a bottle of beer in our clenched hands and football on our screens.

We are cursed this year with four really good teams and four really horrible ones, conveniently dictating both the Western and Eastern Finals. It is at this time that I can see the rationalization of CFL critics in staying away from an eight-team league. If we get these playoffs over with, we can sip champagne for the Grey Cup before NHL training camps open.

But that isn't bound to happen anytime soon, and the middle part of any sports season is rough. This is why basketball, hockey and baseball seasons have All-Star Games in the middle of their schedules. This is why golf spreads its majors across five months and why The Oscars ceremoniously plays its slideshow of B-and-C-list cult heroes who have croaked over the past twelve months.

We all need a break, and we are just a couple of weekends away from Labour Day, which is the closest thing the CFL has to a true midseason. There's a reason the league keeps its rivalry games during this part of the schedule. On the last day of freedom before the September grind begins, it's nice to go out with the family to catch in a football game. This is also when the playoff races begin to take shape and the games just seem meaningful from here on in.

Stay patient, fellows, we only have four games to go until then. Let's do it without any controversy.:

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-5 4 E) vs. Montreal Alouettes (5-2 T1 E) (-11) O/U 52.5
Today at 7:35

Winnipeg busted out of the gate this year, putting together three solid games and going 2-2 after the first four weeks, looking like they might contend. They've dropped three straight since then, and are in the middle of sorting out the question mark at quarterback.

Last week, Anthony Calvillo threw for 450 yards and managed to lose a game that wasn't even close. Considering how many touchdowns (8) and passing yards (645) Winnipeg gave up to Kevin Glenn over the last two weeks, this looks like one of those crazy games that we expect the Als to win and cover.

And in these situations, they always do. Eleven points is nothing--both teams average a larger point spread than this (all CFL teams except for BC and Toronto do, anyway) and the teams are second and third in the league in points scored by both teams during games played.

Hamilton Tiger Cats (3-4 3 E) vs. Toronto Argonauts (5-2 T1 E) (-2.5) O/U 53.5
Friday at 7:35

Insightful analysis from Toronto's half last week: Chad Owens, Chad Owens, Chad Owens, Chad Owens. Chad Owens? Chad Owens!

Insightful analysis from Hamilton's half last week: Arland Bruce still has something in him.

Generally I'm not stoked on rivalry games. I think the media plays it up a bit more because rival fan bases dislike each other, but we always hear about hatred that never manifests between the teams themselves, give or take a few shoves every now and then.

Hell, these two teams play each other so much I'm sure that Arland Bruce is willing to forgive his old teammates for whatever it is they did during his final days in Toronto.

The Argonauts are beginning to find their offensive groove, which is scary. Hamilton is still in the 'well, we put up a whole bunch of points and yards, but we HAVE played Winnipeg four times... so...' stage. Advantage Lemon. And the under.

CFL Week 7 Preview

All right, Hall of Fame weekend! New buildings! Teams moving! NFL cuts! Mid-season CFL, running time next to NFL preseason games. In actuality, pro football at its worst.

BC @ Saskatchewan - Today at 9:00

Defeating the Lions at home has become a ritual among CFL teams this year. Jarious Jackson is getting the start at quarterback for BC. After three more losses, whose neck is going to be next on the chopping block?

The Riders are favoured by seven and a half. Take it. It should be fun. It's been interesting this year to watch BC lose in many different ways to many different teams. Take the 54.5 under, as well.

Hamilton @ Winnipeg Friday at 8:30

Remember when Bob Young bought the Tiger-Cats after they came off their 1-19 season and he was going to be the guy to turn everything around?

Yeah, about that...

When the Ti-Cats play at CanadInns Stadium, I hope they hate the subpar facilities, and don't cringe when they realize, um, oh yeah, that...

My own conspiracy theory is that the Hamilton City Council backed the downtown West Harbour Stadium to chase away the Tiger-Cats who are adding to Hamilton's unfortunate reputation. This past decade was the first that the Tiger-Cats didn't win a Grey Cup since the 1900s, just like the Montreal Canadiens. Unlike the Montreal Canadiens, they didn't finish in the top four in the league last year.

Anyways, playing the Bombers each week has become sort of an annoying chore, like church, to be repeated each and every weekend because the scheduler seemed to have completely forgotten about these two teams when making up the early season schedule. Home team has won each game. Winnipeg is favoured by three, continuing a trend where only two times this year has a game been decided by fewer than three, I'll take Winnipeg. The over/under is 54. Kevin Glenn has been on fire as of late, and Winnipeg quietly has put up the third best scoring offense in the league. Go up.

Montreal @ Toronto Saturday at 7:30

The only thing that would make this Montreal/Toronto Saturday night game better is if it were played on ice. It makes you wonder how the Habs would do against the Leafs on fake grass and vice versa; how would the Alouettes fare against the Argonauts on a cold, slippery, synthetic indoor surface?

The Leafs have some big guys who could play linebacker. Dion Phaneuf would love to hear that he's legally allowed to leave his feet on hits. Dress JS Giguere up in those big pads of his and just try to see a guy run past him on the end. From a skill standpoint, they have enough speed guys to run the big field in Kessel, Versteeg and Kulemin. Francois Beauchemin is a cut guy with good vision who could be a decent quarterback.

But what kind of team do the Habs have? Their second biggest player is their backup goalie, Alex Auld. If he's as adept at stopping a run as he is stopping a puck, the team is in serious trouble. I see Michael Cammaelleri at quarterback, PK Subban at running back, and Tomas Plekanec as a defensive captain and safety.

Take the Argonauts +7 at home, with Colby Armstrong running for a couple of touchdowns. Take the over at 52.

Edmonton @ Calgary Sunday at 8:05

The first Battle of Alberta game this year is in Calgary, with the Stampeders as one of the premier teams, and the Eskimos coming into the game running routes at random, without direction. I'm sure last week I saw tackle Calvin Armstrong fall for the old "your shoelace is untied" gag from an opposing defensive lineman, leading to a Ricky Ray sack.

Take Calgary minus ten at home, and under 54. Both these teams are better defensive than offensive clubs.

I cut my thumb this week pretty badly, making my digit equivalent to every CFLer who tried out for the NFL this week. Although Dmitri Tsoumpas and Titus Ryan certainly aren't part of a very passable spaghetti sauce.

CFL odds, thoughts and ends headed into Week 6.

All right--I spent a week moving in. What did I miss? Probably nothing. Wait... Danny Macocia fired? Twitter crap? NFL cuts? What's happening?

Saskatchewan @ Montreal - Today at 7:05

The great thing about this game is that it's completely overlooked as a rematch of a Grey Cup game, and instead as a rematch of an earlier regular season game. I will say it's hard to get used to the idea that Saskatchewan are one of the league's elite teams, instead being a well-supported footnote in each CFL season.

What else does this game have? It's being played in front of more drunk Frenchmen than usual, apparently.

The over/under is 60, and the Alouettes are favoured by six. With both teams averaging more than 300 yards passing and at least 58 points in each game, it's unfathomable to think it'll be lower than that. I'd also say Montreal wins by more than a touchdown--keep in mind they were up by 21 points in Week 1 against the Riders.

Toronto @ Edmonton - Today at 10:05

Toronto coach Jim Barker did his best to not create a quarterback issue this week by creating a quarterback issue Wednesday after practice. Barker said a whole bunch of "no, Lemon has won like, 3 of 5 games, so he's good, right?"

Toronto has, been winning games not because Cleo Lemon is 3-2, but because they're good in close games and have a good running back. They have a defense that gives up field goals instead of touchdowns. Hell, just one CFL team has not had a 300+ yard passing game.

Ricky Ray has not fared any better, and his play was bad enough to cost General Manager Danny Maciocia his job.

The Argos actually give up an average of 31 points on the road, but Edmonton has not cracked the 30-point mark so far this year. In a war of mediocre versus terrible, I'll side with mediocre. Take Toronto plus eight points, and under 52.5.

Winnipeg @ Hamilton - Saturday at 7:05

This is the third time these two teams have played each other in six weeks, with another meeting next week. The home team has won by 20-plus points the first two times these teams played. It's apparent that these two teams will likely compete to play against Toronto instead of Calgary or Saskatchewan come playoff time, so it's good to get all the important games out of the way early.

Winnipeg coach Paul Lapolice hasn't said anything about Buck Pierce's possible return, which means it probably won't happen. Meanwhile, Kevin Glenn threw for 425 yards last week. Quarterback advantage?

Hamilton is favoured by four. Take it. Take the over set at 54. But this game could be over quickly. Just once this year have the Blue Bombers seen a lead change in the fourth quarter. That was all the way back in Week 2. Blowout written all over this one. At least the Saturday nightcap game will be close, right?

Calgary @ BC - Saturday at 10:05

NOPE!

Somewhere, deep inside this British Columbian's heart, we can hope that Henry Burris has one of his four interception nights. Or Jamal Robertson runs for 163 yards again. Or the offensive coordinator decides to draw up a play that will send the ball more than 10 yards on 2nd and long.

But most of me knows that probably won't happen. BC are terrible. Calgary has just one loss this year, and it was in the last second. They also have the league's best defense, against its worst offense. In an eight team league, sure, there's about a 25 per cent chance of that happening in any given week.

Calgary's favoured by 4 on the road. I take that. The over/under is 48. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Lions crack the two touchdown barrier, meaning that Calgary is going to have so score four times to get the over. That sounds reasonable enough.

Shout-out to Boxer Lager for advertising the lowest legal price in Ontario. I bet it doesn't totally taste like moose piss. I think it'd be worth a case for posterity purposes. Just a thought.

Your CFL Week 5 preview, jokes, odds, and stuff

So far, every team has a loss. But not every team has a win! The last time that the Edmonton Eskimos went 0-4, the Rolling Stones were at the top of the world with their fresh hit (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction. The last time the Argonauts started 3-1, Men In Black was tops at the box office.

The last time that the Vancouver media obsessed over a non-story? The radio waves were being dominated by pop-stars such as Eminem and Katy Perry, while Christopher Nolan's classic film 'Inception' was the talk at water coolers.

Montreal Alouettes vs. Toronto Argonauts - Today at 7:35

So it's come down to this: the Toronto Argonauts are tied for first place and are part of the marquee matchup of the week. As great as the Argos have been, they really have yet to face serious competition. Cory Boyd leads the league in rushing yards, and Cleo Lemon is somewhere in the top ten in completion percentage.

Toronto won 3 games all of last year and find themselves at 3-1 right now. There really is no reason to believe yet that they won't finish at 3-15, given how close their last couple of games have been against bad teams who were playing worse than they were.

Montreal, on the other hand, have been pretty clinical since that Week 1 defeat, even though they have yet to put together a full 60 minutes (-1 for unbearable cliché) in any game except the ones they play against Hamilton.

Also, let's get through the game without anti-French sentiment, shall we?

The over/under is 52.5. Go with the under. Montreal has played in a couple of low-scoring games this year and the Argos offense is still totally alright to joke about. Alouettes are favoured by 10.5 points. Spot them the points--they're 3-1 against the spread this year as well.

Edmonton Eskimos vs. BC Lions - Friday at 9:05

Friday Night Football, TSN's heavily-promoted matchup of each week, did not work out in Week 5, but luckily, both sides of combined 1-7 teams have given us no shortage of storylines to whet our thirsts for blood, personnel firings, and dropped passes.

Eskies president Rick LeLacheur makes it seem like a whole pile of people are going to lose their jobs. "Let me put it this way, there's nobody in this organization that's untouchable." LeLacheur said. Linebacker Maurice Lloyd said it best: "A lot of guys in this room need to go visit the Wizard of Oz and ask for either a brain or a heart."

Unfortunately for BC and us Lions fans everywhere, that overpaid has-been of a quarterback we have seems to be untouchable, even though a knee injury has relegated him to third-string status. That news was partly the reason I don't listen to sports talk radio anymore.

A lack of star power and the promise for blood should the Eskies lose make this game a cynic's dream. Did you know that these two teams are also the only ones who have punted over 1000 yards this year? I bet you don't think it's because both teams have extraordinarily capable punters.

The over/under is 55.5. Take the under, since the defenses for both teams have actually been quite good despite their records. It's a "pick 'em" sort of game, so I'm going to go with Edmonton with the hope that Lions president Dennis Skulsky can make the same threats to Wally Buono.

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Saturday at 6:30

Quick! What has three kickers and can't count? Aside from a Texas Hold 'Em player betting on an outside straight after the river, it is also the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Luca Congi, Eddie Johnson and Louie Sakoda are all kickers listed on the Riders roster. The latter two are imports.

The Riders probably won't need the extra roster spots this week, but Peter James made the obvious point that just one, and not both, will be back with the team this time in Week 6.

As for useful statistics, CFL Daily did the research and found that the Riders have been improving in every quarter, while the Tabbies haven't. This means that if Saskatchewan are down by 49 after the first quarter, they're still completely in the game. (I think)

Let it also be known that 'Fantuz Flakes' debut today. Somewhere right now in Regina is Arland Bruce buying up shelves, desperately looking for a production boost.

Riders are favoured by 7.5 at home and the over/under is 53.5. Take the over and the Riders to cover. The teams have averaged 60 points between them and their opponents this year. Hamilton has been blown out in both road games. Do the math.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders Saturday at 9:30

The Stampeders dominance at home multiplied by Stephen Jyles going against the top defense in the league, divided by Calgary's remarkable inconsistency and Henry Burris interceptions means that this game is a coin flip.

The Stampeders are favoured by 7 points. The smart money says to take Calgary, but a big part of me think that the Bombers can come close to an upset. At 57.5, the over/under is the highest this week, but I doubt this will be the most high scoring game, so the odds are to take the under. (Hint: don't gamble on anything I say)

I get the PVR setup by Saturday at the latest, meaning all four games will be watched in their entirety, as well as the season premiere of Jersey Shore, several back-to-back episodes of Two and a Half Men, and a full season of Little Mosque.

And imagine, all this PVR space with a bowl of Fantuz Flakes. Now if only we can get a brand of toast named after Dominique Dorsey.

Week 4 CFL Preview - Senator vs. Senator

We have four CFL games in the next three days, giving us plenty of time to drink beer and ask ourselves whether Chris Cuthbert's suits are getting smaller, or if he is growing a little bit around the waist.

Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger Cats - Today at 7:30

So it's come to this: the defending Grey Cup champions finally, finally get their home opener. They've compiled a 2-1 record (with the one loss not really counting as a loss if this is hockey) and Anthony Calvillo is at the top of his game.

It doesn't seem much can go against Montreal's favour right now. Except for my picking them to win this game. They're screwed.

Pick Montreal by 8.5. The Ti-Cats got rung up at Winnipeg's home opener for 49 points.

Toronto Argonauts vs. BC Lions - Friday at 7:30

The Braley Bowl! No matter what, Lions and Argonauts owner David Braley is guaranteed a loss. Casey Printers will carry the clipboard with Travis Lulay getting the start for BC. I'm not the biggest Printers fan around, but doing this after three games seems like a ridiculous knee-jerk reaction by Wally Buono and his cast of evangelicals. At least this will solve the mystery if the Lions' offense is built around throwing footballs into the groud in front of check receivers.

At least Senator (!) Braley has one good coach in this game. Jim Barker appears to have turned the Argonauts around (for now). This is a good matchup for the Lions right now, since all they can do is get it done on defense.

Give the points and take Toronto plus three at home, by virtue of the fact that no team should be able to score three points in this game. And watch out for leftover cougars from the Bon Jovi concert.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Edmonton Eskimos Saturday at 6:30

Without Buck Pierce, this COULD be a matchup of the two worst teams in the league. Steven Jyles, at no point throughout his career, has shown any ability to control an offense or do anything but take a knee at the end of quarters. Don't trust Winnipeg's defense. 10-38-29-36-28 are the point totals they've given up so far (including pre-season).

Edmonton are a team that can get dominated on the ground (been hit twice for 190 yards already in just three games) which opens up room for Fred Reid, who's surely the number one offensive weapon for Winnipeg.

Take Winnipeg and the three points, but bet the under on number of beer snakes in the crowd at CanadInns.

Calgary Stampeders vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Saturday at 9:30

Saskatchewan lead the league in touchdowns divided by field goal attempts, a stat I made up last week to determine a team's offensive ability. The air attack is a big reason for that, but nobody in the league has more TDs on the ground that Wes Cates (at two. The bar is set really, really low for runners in this league)

I think it's because this team is fearless. Running reverses in your own endzone in fourth quarters shows how confident the coaches are in the players, or something. Not something we've seen out of Calgary just yet.

The over/under is 56, and you're out of your mind not to take it. [Monday headline: 'Luca Congi hits field goal to win tight 19-18 game']. The Riders lead the league in offense and have given up the second most points in the CFL. Calgary, are, well, Calgary, and in Week 4 last year they exploded for 48 points. This is definitely the most intriguing matchup on the schedule.

The Stamps are favoured by 2.5 in this game, which is curious since the Riders have looked unbeatable since the third quarter of their Week 1 game against Montreal. This means that Vegas knows something I don't. Take Calgary -2.5.

I'm going to spend this weekend inventing more statistics. Chime in with a comment if you think that there's a number that's worth looking into. I have all kinds of time on my hands.

CFL Week 3 preview (plus Wednesday Argos recap)

What do you get when you have:

-A quarterback who, even though he has played one extra game than all but one other pivot in the league, is ranked 7th out of 8 in total passing yards?

-A team who was riding an eight-game losing streak coming into the season and was the butt of all jokes, particularly since all of their potential quarterbacks lacked league experience?

-A team that, in their comeback win over the heavily-favoured Calgary Stampeders in their home opener, did not score a touchdown until there was just 1:57 left on the clock?

Your 2-1 Toronto Argonauts. Somehow, that's what you get.

They are on a two-game winning streak, and they are doing in the weirdest of ways.

Wednesday night, 142 yards by Cory Boyd kept Toronto in the game while Grant Shaw kicked field goal after field goal in a close game at Rogers Centre. The defense effectively shut down Henry Burris and the deadly passing attack of the Stamps, intercepting him four times and holding him to 207 yards.

Last week, in a game plagued by raining beer cups, the Argonauts were out-gained 493 to 317, but won thanks to a couple of big returns and a heads-up, savvy-coaching play by coach Jim Barker and linebacker EJ Kuale, who punted a ball with no time on the clock in the first half into the endzone for a single.

They have a victory over one division rival (Winnipeg) and split the season series with the Stamps. We are only 1/6th of the way through, but this is the most interesting team so far to watch. If Cleo Lemon can get it together and give this team a decent passing game, watch out.

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All that done and gone, I can ignore the fact that I completely overlooked last night's game when planning this week's CFL preview.Games aren't supposed to be held on Wednesday.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Hamilton against Buck-Pierce's MVP laser rocket arm. The 'Peg go on the road for the first time after scoring an obscene amount of points in their first two games at home (49 and 34). With the afore-mentioned Pierce having more yards on the ground than starting running back Fred Reid, it's fair to assume to who this team belongs to.

But, Winnipeg has lost this season by letting inferior teams in the game. Their defense is questionable, they've allowed at least one return in each of their two games. Is this the game that the Ti-Cats give last year's rusher DeAndra Cobb his touches? Probably not. It's not that Cobb hasn't been effective, it's that Marcel Bellefeuille seems unwilling to get him into the lineup. The dude is a former offensive co-ordinator and is sitting on one of the most balanced offenses in the league. Oh well.

Edge Winnipeg. (And by default should beat the +4 spread)

BC Lions vs. Montreal Alouettes

Montreal doesn't win in BC, but now that the Lions are playing outside, anything can happen. Also, the Lions have an offensive line that has been easier to penetrate than your average Roxy girl (not that we'd know).

Now that the nostalgia has passed and the Lions are settled into their 'new' 'stadium' how soon until this team starts feeling the heat for its abysmal play this year? Montreal is a defense-first team by default (Everything is in that city, like the politicians and the Habs. But not the women [again, not that we'd know]) and the lone bright spot for the Lions on offense is that time where a whole bunch of Eskimos forgot how to tackle.

Edge Montreal. (And will cover the six. If this is a close game, Montreal will probably find a way to lose, and their shittiness on the West Coast isn't just a BC Place curse)

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos

And that leaves the 2-0 Riders. Who let this happen? Who let this team win two games? Who let this running team develop a dangerous passing attack? How long until TSN stops calling Darian Durant a 'breakout star' or pretending that he isn't already as scary as a false positive on a pregnancy test for an opposing defense (again, not like we'd know).

Somebody made the point that the Eskimos haven't been the same since Milt Stegall's last second 100-yard TD return on them a couple of years ago, and I'm willing to believe that. Ricky Ray just isn't that good anymore, and their receivers are no longer big-play threats.

Edge Saskatchewan. (I'll also give them 7 points to cover)

Don't let Wednesday games sneak up on you. All of a sudden you turn into the pre-game show for something you didn't think existed and are left wondering if you've warped space-time.