Friday, August 27, 2010

CFL Week 9 preview

Here we are, Week 9--the last of the bye weeks.

A lot of websites that offer odds and tell you which way to bet keep a running record of how they've done. Since I started doing this about a quarter of the way through the season, my record against the point spreads and over/under is easily over .500.

Am I not checking because I'm worried that my record is worse than what I say it is? Not at all. Am I lazy? Partly. So why bring it up? Because when we have probably the best two teams in the CFL playing two of the worst this weekend, an upset will stem only if either Calgary or Saskatchewan don't show up, or its a total fluke. Rock-solid analysis won't be able to predict anything here.

I was originally going to be in Vancouver for the Lions and Stampeders game, but my plans changed, and I will now spend my weekend sitting around in my underwear playing Madden '11, which really need to add a CFL feature. A few years ago, EA Sports' NHL titles had custom rules where you could play on European-size ice, and they continue to offer European teams in the NHL series that nobody will play except Europeans. How about a CFL mode for the rest of us?

Calgary Stampeders (6-1) @ BC Lions (1-6, +5) O/U 52
Today at 10:30

Calgary won by five last time these two met at Empire, and that's the closest that the Lions have won to winning at home outdoors since some time back in the 70s. In that game, I felt that BC really, really, really had a chance, but the offense just couldn't put it together. To offer some Glen Suitor-type analysis, if the Lions' defense is as strong as it was the first time these two teams met, but the offense is drawn up a little better and executes better, BC has a chance.

Take Calgary -5, and the under. As far as Jarious Jackson incomplete hail mary passes go, whatever the number is, take the over.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-2) @ Edmonton Eskimos (1-6, +6) O/U 55

One of the big question marks about this season is, who are more hopeless? The Lions or the Eskimos? Edmonton came close to beating Saskatchewan at Mosaic earlier this year back in Week 3, after giving up a 20-13 fourth quarter lead.

For a while Edmonton was just bad in the second half. They gave up a sure win to Montreal thanks to a Fred Stamps dropped pass. Now they're just bad all around and drop passes in every quarter.

So, for posterity's sake, take Saskatchewan -6 and the under. I am not convinced the Edmonton triple-QB offense can generate anything against the different defensive packages Saskatchewan comes out with. Jared Zabransky can't even throw those hook-and-lateral plays, because even if the initial pass to Kelly Campbell is complete, Kamau Petersen will just drop the lateral.

1 comment:

  1. Kamau Peterson has been 9 gamed for about 5 weeks now....