Friday, August 6, 2010

CFL odds, thoughts and ends headed into Week 6.

All right--I spent a week moving in. What did I miss? Probably nothing. Wait... Danny Macocia fired? Twitter crap? NFL cuts? What's happening?

Saskatchewan @ Montreal - Today at 7:05

The great thing about this game is that it's completely overlooked as a rematch of a Grey Cup game, and instead as a rematch of an earlier regular season game. I will say it's hard to get used to the idea that Saskatchewan are one of the league's elite teams, instead being a well-supported footnote in each CFL season.

What else does this game have? It's being played in front of more drunk Frenchmen than usual, apparently.

The over/under is 60, and the Alouettes are favoured by six. With both teams averaging more than 300 yards passing and at least 58 points in each game, it's unfathomable to think it'll be lower than that. I'd also say Montreal wins by more than a touchdown--keep in mind they were up by 21 points in Week 1 against the Riders.

Toronto @ Edmonton - Today at 10:05

Toronto coach Jim Barker did his best to not create a quarterback issue this week by creating a quarterback issue Wednesday after practice. Barker said a whole bunch of "no, Lemon has won like, 3 of 5 games, so he's good, right?"

Toronto has, been winning games not because Cleo Lemon is 3-2, but because they're good in close games and have a good running back. They have a defense that gives up field goals instead of touchdowns. Hell, just one CFL team has not had a 300+ yard passing game.

Ricky Ray has not fared any better, and his play was bad enough to cost General Manager Danny Maciocia his job.

The Argos actually give up an average of 31 points on the road, but Edmonton has not cracked the 30-point mark so far this year. In a war of mediocre versus terrible, I'll side with mediocre. Take Toronto plus eight points, and under 52.5.

Winnipeg @ Hamilton - Saturday at 7:05

This is the third time these two teams have played each other in six weeks, with another meeting next week. The home team has won by 20-plus points the first two times these teams played. It's apparent that these two teams will likely compete to play against Toronto instead of Calgary or Saskatchewan come playoff time, so it's good to get all the important games out of the way early.

Winnipeg coach Paul Lapolice hasn't said anything about Buck Pierce's possible return, which means it probably won't happen. Meanwhile, Kevin Glenn threw for 425 yards last week. Quarterback advantage?

Hamilton is favoured by four. Take it. Take the over set at 54. But this game could be over quickly. Just once this year have the Blue Bombers seen a lead change in the fourth quarter. That was all the way back in Week 2. Blowout written all over this one. At least the Saturday nightcap game will be close, right?

Calgary @ BC - Saturday at 10:05


Somewhere, deep inside this British Columbian's heart, we can hope that Henry Burris has one of his four interception nights. Or Jamal Robertson runs for 163 yards again. Or the offensive coordinator decides to draw up a play that will send the ball more than 10 yards on 2nd and long.

But most of me knows that probably won't happen. BC are terrible. Calgary has just one loss this year, and it was in the last second. They also have the league's best defense, against its worst offense. In an eight team league, sure, there's about a 25 per cent chance of that happening in any given week.

Calgary's favoured by 4 on the road. I take that. The over/under is 48. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Lions crack the two touchdown barrier, meaning that Calgary is going to have so score four times to get the over. That sounds reasonable enough.

Shout-out to Boxer Lager for advertising the lowest legal price in Ontario. I bet it doesn't totally taste like moose piss. I think it'd be worth a case for posterity purposes. Just a thought.

1 comment:

  1. UGH now that macocia is unemployed, maybe he'll finally do another "Honey I Shrunk the Kids" movie